Marist Poll Puts Palin Within Five Points of Obama

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COMMENTARY | According to the Miami Herald, a Marist Poll has some numbers that could prove a game changer for the 2012 elections. The poll finds that former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin is within five points of President Barack Obama, 45 percent to 49 percent.

Generally, for the past two or three years, Palin, while polling well in the Republican primary contest, has not performed so well in matchups against Obama, trailing more often than not by double digits. This has led to a consensus among inside the Beltway pundits that she will likely not run for president.

Palin is now performing against Obama better than Tex Gov. Rick Perry, the current front-runner, who is down nine points against the president. Palin leads Obama for the first time among independents.

The question arises, what is going on?

One theory is that the Marist numbers are outliers, statistical flukes that will not bear out in subsequent polls.

However, Palin supporters will likely suggest the former Alaska governor and tea party favorite is now moving, at last. There may be several factors at play here.

Hot Air speculates Palin's attack on crony capitalism has struck a chord with the American people, garnering a reason to support her. There also seems to be a rising sense that Obama needs to have his tenure in the Oval Office terminated and that anyone but him would be preferable.

Another possibility that the latest round of vicious attacks on Palin, inspired by the new Joe McGinniss book, has gained Palin some sympathy. The accusations of sexual promiscuity and drug abuse have proven to be so over the top that even Palin's mainstream media enemies have revolted in revulsion. Palin's enemies seem to have gone too far and have poisoned the well for her opponents.

Palin has not yet decided, at least publicly, whether to run for president yet. However, the Marist numbers should prove encouraging. Of her potential conservative rivals, Michele Bachmann has declined to single digits and Perry has come under increasing attack and may have peaked.

The conditions for a Palin run may be coming together at last. The anti crony capitalism issue has given her a campaign theme. The various public relations moves, including the documentary "The Undefeated," the various bus trips, and campaign style speeches have prepared the battlefield. All there is left is when and how to announce.

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