On 'gay marriage' poll results, be skeptical

It appears there is a large percentage of people who actually oppose redefining marriage but are afraid to say so to a stranger on the phone.

New polling in Minnesota -- which will vote on a constitutional amendment next year defining marriage as between a man and a woman -- supports Gallagher. A Star-Tribune poll in May that used live callers showed 55 percent of residents oppose the amendment and only 39 percent support it. But days later a SurveyUSA poll -- an automated survey -- showed the opposite, with 51 percent of voters supporting it and 40 percent opposing it. Another automated survey, by Public Policy Polling, showed a near-deadlock, with 47 percent opposing it and 46 percent supporting it.

An identical trend was seen in 2009 in Maine, which was deciding whether to repeal a law that legalized "gay marriage." Two pre-election polls by Pan Atlantic SMS Group using live callers showed that voters wanted to keep the law: 52-43 percent in the first poll and 53-42 percent in the second poll. But two automated Public Policy Polling polls showed it either tied or voters rejecting the law (51-47 percent). In the end, Maine voters did reject the law, 53-47 percent.